Ben Landau-Taylor
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Probability Is Not A Substitute For Reasoning
Several Rationalists objected to my recent “Against AGI Timelines” post, in which I argued that “the arguments advanced for particular timelines [to…
Mar 6
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Probability Is Not A Substitute For Reasoning
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February 2024
There Are More Things In Heaven And Earth
The celestial origin of meteoric iron had been recognized at an early date, although it was disregarded subsequently. A fall of meteorites in 644 B.C…
Feb 28
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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There Are More Things In Heaven And Earth
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The Three Chinese Civilizations
Historians usually divide the history of China into three rough periods, “Ancient China”, “Imperial China”, and “Modern China”. I don’t think this is…
Feb 21
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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The Three Chinese Civilizations
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My Mom's Rules For Cults
I wasn’t the first person in my family to run off to San Francisco to join a movement of fringe countercultural weirdos that later somehow found itself…
Feb 7
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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My Mom's Rules For Cults
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What's The Deal With The Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution is the most important event in economic history, and naturally it gets a lot of attention. While James Watt’s steam engine…
Feb 1
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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What's The Deal With The Industrial Revolution
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December 2023
Against AGI Timelines
Some of my friends have strong views on how long it will be until AGI is created. The best arguments on the subject establish that creating a…
Dec 28, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Against AGI Timelines
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The Military Transformation Of Medieval Europe: Stirrups vs Social Cohesion
The historical consensus holds that the invention of the stirrup was a major development in military history. By permitting the horseman to keep his…
Dec 13, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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The Military Transformation Of Medieval Europe: Stirrups vs Social Cohesion
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November 2023
Markets Are Thin
When people talk about a “market economy”, what exactly does that mean? You might assume it means a society where all or most economic decisions are…
Nov 29, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Markets Are Thin
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Book Review: The Great Illusion
Normal Angell’s The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National Advantage, published in 1910, is the author’s attempt to…
Nov 23, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Book Review: The Great Illusion
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On The Franklin Effect
The Franklin Effect is a concept in pop psychology which asserts that, if Alice does a favor for Bob, then Alice will be more inclined to do more things…
Nov 15, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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On The Franklin Effect
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Power Is Not Conserved
If I become more powerful, it has to be at someone else’s expense. After all, power just means the ability to determine what happens, and if I become…
Nov 8, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Power Is Not Conserved
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Movements Without Strategists, And The Dissolution Of The British Empire
In The Anglo-American Establishment, Carroll Quigley presents a case study on the Milner Group, an association of British politicians and intellectuals…
Nov 1, 2023
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Ben Landau-Taylor
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Movements Without Strategists, And The Dissolution Of The British Empire
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